It only takes a quick look at national electoral results over the past year to understand that any presumption of a stable, centrist European Parliament would be misguided. On the fringes, the next legislative chamber will almost certainly be more influenced from both the right and left – and “populism” cannot explain this phenomenon in and of itself. Elsewhere, though the spark lit by the election of Emmanuel Macron may turn out to be less explosive than previously believed, it is likely that the Parliament’s liberal faction will have to adjust to a stronger presence and more complex role. And of course, it would be unwise to ignore the machinations ongoing within the largest centre-right and centre-left groupings, who will continue to play the biggest role in determining the direction of EU policy.

This downloadable NOVE analysis brings together the most recent polling data on the upcoming election to paint a picture of the makeup of the next European Parliament, and complements this with a dive into the work going on in political groups to anticipate the changes on the horizon.